NO CHANCE..........it will be here for a while yet, and here is why.
Recessions and Depressions are actually very predictable, but are unstoppable.
We have had a few………2001, 1991, 1981, 1970, 1958, 1952, 1942 1929 and 1919.
A recession happens roughly every 10 years and lasts almost exactly a year and a half, but its occurrence can be delayed or induced by either an act of warfare (1957 Korean War)(1919 influx of troops onto the employment market)or an Oil crisis (1972 OPEC increased prices by 400% because of low production). A economic decline happens about every 50 years and is related to government budget/GDP positions of - and a swelling of unemployment numbers to beyond 16%, and can last for up to 4 years.
This recession is being emphasised by an increase in oil prices, not by a shortage generated out of increased use of oil. It is also down to the financial mismanagement of investment management in financial products. So we have all the same positions in place to show this recession to be very much like the recession of 1958, where it’s effects could have been minimized in relation to the stagflation of the time, but the tax increases on oil and a USA budget deficit made it a very tight time.
So the issues of today are real, predictable, but not permanent - some will suffer, most will not but everyone will be touched.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Speak up - tell us what yu think